The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans should have opposite defensive approaches when they meet on Sunday in Week 1.
As I wrote earlier today, the Texans have become the NFL’s most blitz-averse club, and justifiably so, given the presence of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, a duo that each eclipsed 80 pressures (!) during the regular season a year ago.
In Houston on Sunday, the Bills need to crank the blitz dial against C.J. Stroud.
To date in the regular season as a professional, Stroud has an Expected Points Added per drop back that ranks 41st out of 66 qualifying quarterbacks when blitzed. In 2025 alone, Stroud’s EPA per drop back against the blitz ranked 27th out of 38 qualifiers.
For perspective, the -0.017 EPA per drop back Stroud managed against the blitz last season was almost identical to Atlanta Falcons Kirk Cousins in all situations.
On the flip side, his +0.167 EPA per drop back when not blitzed was the sixth-best among qualifying quarterbacks and nearly identical to Patrick Mahomes’ entire 2025 campaign (and slightly below Josh Allen’s overall EPA/drop back of +0.171)
In Jim Leonhard’s two seasons as the pass-game coordinator on the defensive side in Denver, the Broncos blitzed on 32.4% of the opposition’s drop backs, the fifth-highest rate in football and a stark contrast to the Bills 22.0% blitz rate in 2024 and 2025 combined, which was the NFL’s fourth-lowest blitz rate.
Of course, we can all safely assume Leonhard’s collegiate track record, time spent with the Broncos, and distinctly more aggressive schematic tendencies compared to the McDermott era were all reasons he was hired as the team’s new defensive coordinator in late January.
I must note too, as another reason for this call to action for Buffalo’s increased blitzing tactics — Houston retooled its offensive line for the second-straight season. Buffalo’s defense should test the Texans blocking cohesion and communication as frequently as possible.
Houston signed Evan Brown, who spent the past two years in Arizona as the team’s starting center yet was a cap casualty in March. A a first-round pick was spent on guard Keylan Rutledge from Georgia Tech. And arguably the biggest blocking investment came via free-agency with the addition of right tackle Braden Smith, but he’s on IR with a foot injury he suffered in August. That’s a huge loss for Houston.
Just as I don’t expect the Texans to deviate from their minimal blitzing tendencies against Allen and Co., Leonhard should stay true to his pressure-package roots against Stroud and the Texans offense in this Week 1 showdown.
It’ll give the Bills the best chance to win this game to start the season.
