I'm back for year 2 of posting weekly playoff impacts!
I ran 5 million Monte Carlo simulations of the season to figure out what the playoff implications of every week 1 game are.
The Bills current odds to make the playoffs are 78.8%.
- If you beat the Texans, that goes up to 85.8%, but if you lose, it drops down to 71.2%. It's a swing of 14.6%.
- NE @ SEA is the second most impactful week 1 game for you guys. If the Seahawks win, your playoff odds go up by 0.8%. If the Patriots win your playoff odds go down by 1.2%.
- TB @ CIN is the third most impactful game with a total impact of 0.8%. Your playoff odds go up if the Buccaneers win.
| Game | Optimal Winner | Impact Δ | If Win | If Lose | Game Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF @ HOU | BUF | 14.6% | +7.0% | -7.6% | Sun 09/13 1:00 PM ET |
| NE @ SEA | SEA | 2.0% | +0.8% | -1.2% | Wed 09/09 8:20 PM ET |
| TB @ CIN | TB | 0.8% | +0.5% | -0.3% | Sun 09/13 1:00 PM ET |
| ATL @ PIT | ATL | 0.8% | +0.5% | -0.3% | Sun 09/13 1:00 PM ET |
| ARI @ LAC | ARI | 0.8% | +0.6% | -0.1% | Sun 09/13 4:25 PM ET |
| CLE @ JAX | CLE | 0.4% | +0.3% | -0.1% | Sun 09/13 1:00 PM ET |
| MIA @ LV | MIA | 0.3% | +0.2% | -0.1% | Sun 09/13 4:25 PM ET |
| BAL @ IND | BAL | 0.1% | +0.1% | -0.1% | Sun 09/13 1:00 PM ET |
| CHI @ CAR | CHI | 0.1% | +0.1% | -0.1% | Sun 09/13 1:00 PM ET |
| DEN @ KC | KC | 0.1% | +0.1% | -0.1% | Mon 09/14 8:15 PM ET |
| SF @ LAR | LAR | 0.1% | +0.0% | -0.1% | Thu 09/10 8:35 PM ET |
| NO @ DET | DET | 0.1% | +0.0% | -0.1% | Sun 09/13 1:00 PM ET |
| NYJ @ TEN | TEN | 0.0% | +0.0% | -0.0% | Sun 09/13 1:00 PM ET |
| WSH @ PHI | PHI | 0.0% | +0.0% | -0.0% | Sun 09/13 4:25 PM ET |
| GB @ MIN | MIN | 0.0% | +0.0% | -0.0% | Sun 09/13 4:25 PM ET |
| DAL @ NYG | NYG | 0.0% | +0.0% | -0.0% | Sun 09/13 8:20 PM ET |
submitted by /u/FootballSensei
[link] [comments]
