First projection at a Dalton Kincaid extension with Buffalo Bills

Is it too early to start envisioning what a second contract for Dalton Kincaid could look like?

Sure. Maybe a little bit.

While he is in the fourth year of his rookie deal with the Buffalo Bills, and the club has already picked up his fifth-year option for 2027, we know Brandon Beane’s history of signing homegrown talents early.

Without a Bills game on Sunday in Week 2, we have time to peer well into the future on Kincaid’s potentially impending extension.

After a small-sample season in 2025 in which Kincaid led all tight ends in yards per route run — the ultimate receiving efficiency metric — and his blazing start to 2026, we need to start this projection at the top of the tight end market.

Here are the top 3 contracts at tight end right now in the NFL:

While it’s always relevant to showcase the “top” of the market at a certain position when these type of scenarios arise, it’s simultaneously the perfect time to reference why guaranteed at signing matters more than anything else.

Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts, who’s technically fourth in Average Per Year (APY) — which is the default metric used for sorting purposes — at $17.67M, actually has received the most money guaranteed at signing of the group at $36M.

With that, let’s get into the ages of these players, which absolutely will play into negotiations with Kincaid.

Pitts is almost exactly one year younger than Kincaid. Of course Kittle is much older.

Kraft was picked in the same draft as Kincaid but also a year younger, and McBride is a month younger than the Bills star tight end.

And let’s stack these tight ends against each other from a production standpoint. I’ll remove Kittle because while he has the highest APY at the position, because of his age, I don’t believe the deal he’s currently playing on will factor as significantly into contract talks with Kincaid:

In a perfect world for the Bills, the team would’ve gotten ahead of the Kraft contract. But Green Bay didn’t hesitate to hand him the massive extension despite his torn ACL in 2025 while Kincaid’s prolonged injury history likely very much factored into why an extension has yet to be offered to Kincaid.

There is some timing precedent for a Kincaid extension — Greg Rousseau.

He and the Bills agreed on a second contract after his fourth season.

If the Bills ultimately go that route, it’d be sensible, right? Rousseau was a quality player for Buffalo in his first four seasons. And they waited. Kincaid has been quality too, and probably even more productive than Rousseau at his respective position but noticeably less durable.

Beane and Co. haven’t historically given out contracts in-season — not many teams do — and this is precisely where the projection gets hazy because we don’t know what’s ahead for Kincaid. Internally, the Bills may know he’s miles ahead on the health front compared to either of the past two seasons. They may finally feel great about that vital element for any player.

If that’s the case, they’d subsequently be expecting a monstrous 1,000-plus yard campaign for Kincaid, which would come at the perfect time for the tight end given where he is timeline wise on that rookie deal.

And I think a Kincaid extension would look something like this:

Almost identical to his 2023 draft classmate Tucker Kraft. Essentially a market-setting deal for Kincaid, who was a bit older when he started his NFL career — turned 24 in October of his rookie campaign, but is still distinctly in his professional prime.

And right now, I’m projecting lower than truly market-setting on the critical guaranteed-at-signing figure because Beane has regularly gotten these extensions done under that mark. But that could’ve been due to the quality of player he’s signed in the past.

It doesn’t feel like the Bills would get into a hold out/hold intype situation with Kincaid — he very much appears to be fully embedded in Buffalo’s team culture — but contract negotiations can certainly alter team-player relationships.

Then again, James Cook technically held in last summer. Said hold in lasted like two days, and he signed a very team-friendly deal. Culture can impact the contract-front too.

Even if Beane can work his magic to get a Kincaid extension under, say $18M in APY and $32M in guaranteed at signing, we have to be prepared for this to be an expensive deal.

But, frankly, it’d be a long time coming for the Bills to have a (homegrown) receiving weapon for Josh Allen worthy of getting a lucrative extension.